Season-long fixed prices on tomato, onion and potato for restaurant chains
TL;DR Fixedharvest sells restaurant chains and cloud kitchens one thing their current suppliers don't - a price for tomato, onion and potato that stays fixed for a whole season. It backs those prices with grow agreements from farmer producer organisations and its own onion and potato storage. Chains pay a small premium for certainty.
A restaurant prints its menu prices once but buys tomato, onion and potato every day at whatever the market says. The government considers swings in these three crops serious enough to run a dedicated scheme, Operation Greens, launched with ₹500 Cr in the 2018–19 budget to steady their supply and prices[1].
And the swings are hard to see coming. A 2025 study of daily Indian wholesale prices found that even its best deep-learning model missed by 10.58% on average for tomato and 14.59% for onion[2]. If the clever models can't call it, what chance does a purchase manager have? Waste adds to the cost too, with tomato losing 11.61% between farm and buyer, and India lost vegetables worth ₹27,459 Cr in a year[3].
Fixedharvest offers a chain a fixed rupee-per-kilo price for a season, typically four to six months, on a short list of staples with known weekly volumes. Delivery runs to the chain's central kitchen or outlets as usual. The chain's food-cost line stops moving with the mandi.
Behind each contract sits supply Fixedharvest has already lined up. Farmer producer organisations agree to grow set areas at an agreed price band, onion and potato go into rented storage after harvest, and a buffer is bought on the open market only when needed. The business earns the gap between its blended cost and the fixed price, and a bad season can wipe that out, which is exactly why contracts start small.
I reframed the seed, which pitched direct farm-to-restaurant logistics. That market already has large players delivering at daily rates to food businesses in over 130 cities[4], and a newcomer can't beat them on range. Price certainty on a few volatile items is the gap they leave open.
The chain's purchase head or owner pays, usually for a group with 5–50 outlets or a central kitchen. Today they buy at live daily rates, and one large restaurant-supply platform lists carrots at ₹56 a kilo with a slightly lower "best rate"[4]. Fixedharvest's price would sit a few per cent above the expected seasonal average (my assumption) in exchange for a figure they can plan menus around.
Centrally backed contract farming ended when Parliament repealed the 2020 farm laws on 29 November 2021[5], so grow agreements now rest on state law and ordinary contracts. That leaves room for private, small-scale arrangements between FPOs and buyers. Price forecasting research has also improved enough[2] to set a fixed price with your eyes open, if not with certainty.
There's no public figure for fixed-price produce contracts in Indian food service. The adjacent number - NRAI says it represents over 500,000 restaurants in an industry worth ₹5.69 lakh crore[6]. The narrower target, chains with central purchasing, has no published count, so build your own list city by city.
A food-delivery company's restaurant-supply arm sells produce and kitchen supplies at daily rates[4]. One fresh-produce supply platform works with over 8 lakh farmers and supplies retailers across 120+ cities[7]. A fruit-sourcing startup aggregates fruit for retailers, exporters and processors[8]. All of them move produce well. None advertises a price fixed for a season, which is the only reason a chain would switch.
| Difficulty | Moderate (42/100) |
| Starting capital | ₹1.2–2.5 Cr |
| Time to launch | 6–9 months |
Pricing is the hard part. You are selling insurance against price spikes without being an insurer, so one bad call on onion can lose a season's margin. The rest is operations, which means storage losses, FPOs that keep their word when market prices jump, and daily delivery that never misses.
There's no sector licence for selling at a fixed price, but trading produce brings in food and market rules.
Building this outside India? The categories above usually have a local equivalent, so check with your own regulator.
Don't trust AI to set prices alone. A wrong forecast on a fixed-price contract loses real money, so a person signs off every quote.
Want to work out the AI layer for Fixedharvest? Talk to Yash →
Here's what can go south -
This suits you if you've traded vegetables or run procurement for a restaurant group and you're comfortable carrying price risk. If you're expecting a software business then it's a poor fit. Prove one thing before raising money - that two chains will sign a paid, one-season contract on onion alone, and that you can supply it at a profit.
Plan for roughly ₹1.2–2.5 Cr, mostly working capital, storage and a buffer for bad seasons.
You need FSSAI registration or a licence depending on turnover, and your state's APMC rules decide how you buy from FPOs. There's no special licence for fixed pricing itself.
It can be, but margins depend on your blended cost staying below the fixed price. A bad season can wipe out profit, so start with small contracts.
The free Fixedharvest validation kit has the line-by-line capital breakdown, the effort scoring, a checklist of rules for buying from farmers, a 14-day validation sprint with pass/fail targets, a 90-day launch plan, 10 interview questions for restaurant buyers and FPOs, and 5 assumptions to test. Download the kit →
Thinking about building Fixedharvest or something close to it? The make-or-break work is pricing a season of onion without losing your shirt when the market turns, and I'd be glad to think that through with you. If you need a hand, you know where to find me. Talk to Yash →
For illustration only. Names are fictional and ideas hypothetical; sourced facts are real but may be out of date. Nothing here is legal, financial or professional advice, and Yash Khatri is not personally liable for any use of it. Read the full disclaimer.